Is There a GOP "Enthusiam Gap"?

As the Republican electorate seems to be galvanizing around a candidate, the news has suddenly been aflutter with stories of a potential enthusiasm deficit for Republican presidential front-runner Mitt Romney.

In the four states to vote so far in the GOP nominating race, turnout has been strongest where people were energized to vote for somebody else.

In Florida, where Romney grabbed a commanding 46 percent of the vote this week, overall turnout was down significantly from four years ago. A county-by-county look at the Florida numbers shows that turnout was up from four years ago in counties where rival Newt Gingrich did well and down in counties where Romney dominated.

Could it be that turnout, if lower, was due to nice weather or polls showing the election was already decided? Recall that just two weeks ago, South Carolina, where the polls showed a neck-and-neck race, had record turnout for the primary vote.

The Republican primary in South Carolina had record turnout, with bigger gains in voter participation than in Iowa (STTLIA) and New Hampshire earlier this month.

But, the polls leading into Florida and Nevada showed Romney with double-digit leads. Perhaps people did decide to stay home because their guy was winning, rather than a lack of enthusiasm?

Particularly in Nevada, where the Republicans’ disappointing turnout foreshadows difficulty energizing GOP voters in Nevada.

Mitt Romney’s easy victory in Nevada’s Republican presidential caucuses might, in the long run, be less important than the fact that a surprising number of Republicans who could have participated Saturday chose to stay home.

Could it have anything to do with the fact that it was a beautiful 60-degree February day in Nevada Saturday? Nevada is a caucus state, where people huddle indoors for hours bickering about whom to support. Can't imagine anything more inviting on a day with 15 to 20 degree above average temperatures.

Not to be conspiratorial, but watch out for this as the latest attempt by the main stream media and lefty bloggers to support Obama at any cost, such as the hyper-activity over January's job numbers.

Now, maybe it is true that Romney is vanilla and boring and isn't inspiring the rabid following of a Newt or Ron Paul. Or, maybe people have better things to do than to waste an entire day voting for a sure-thing. I will go with the latter for now.