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Friday, February 3, 2012

Obama Celebrates the January 2012 Jobs Numbers. Why?

The fuzzy math that goes into the unemployment rate does not explain how someone out of work so long that he cannot collect unemployment is no longer out of work, despite the fact that he doesn't have a job.

The news media is giddy with reports that the US economy added 243,000 jobs last month. CBS News leads the celebrations, trumpeting that we "finally(!)" have a great jobs report (emphasis added, but not much).
Finally a great report
By all accounts, the results blew away expectations.
The Washington Post's Ezra Klein chimed in:
As my colleague Neil Irwin tweeted, “That sound you hear is champagne corks in the West Wing."
While that is certainly good news for those 243,000 people, it ignores many of the deeper job numbers that simply aren't improving.

The New York Times seems to be one of the few who get it:
There are only two possible explanations for this bizarre combination of a falling employment rate and a falling unemployment rate. The second possible explanation -- a jump in the number of people who aren't working, who aren't actively looking but who would, in fact, like to find a good job -- is less comforting. It also appears to be the more accurate explanation.
The fuzzy math that goes into the unemployment rate you hear on the news (which doesn't count people who ran out of unemployment checks and those who have given up looking for a new job that is just not there) is a happy bit of nonsense for Obama and politicians alike, but does not explain how someone out of work so long that he cannot collect unemployment is no longer out of work, despite the fact that he doesn't have a job.

Obama must be thrilled with these new jobs numbers, such as
367,000 new first time jobless claims for the week ending January 28.
Or
379,000 new first time jobless claims for the week ending January 21.
Or
355,000 new first time jobless claims for the week ending January 14.
He must be overjoyed that there are fewer full-time employed this month over last:
113,050,000 (12/11) 111,879,000 (1/12)
Or, the spike in the U6 unemployment numbers:
U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force
15.2% (12/11) 16.2% (1/12)
How about these:
*Total Number of Unemployed: 12.8 million
*Long-term unemployed (jobless for 27 weeks and over): 5.5 million representing 43 percent of the total unemployed
*Average duration of unemployment: 40.1 weeks (down from 40.9, which was the highest on record)
*Average Hourly Earnings: up $0.04 to $23.29 (over past 12 months, earnings up 1.9 percent)
No, I think Obama is celebrating the fact that the incurious people in the main stream media just regurgitate the simple numbers handed to them and can't be bothered to take the 15 minutes to find more compelling and more telling data.

The Summer of Recovery, rescheduled from 2010, is still not upon us.

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